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хроники нарнии все книги купить в интернет магазине, Global Risks Report 2025 | World Economic Forum, Global economic outlook 2025 report | McKinsey - McKinsey & Company, High risk, low growth, less investment: UN trade arm economic warning, Key Risks for the Global Economy in 2025 - tradecouncil.org, Global Economy Set for Weakest Run Since 2008 Outside of Recessions, The global economy in five charts - World Bank Blogs, Global Financial Fragilities Mount Despite Rate Cuts and Buoyant - IMF.
High risk, low growth, less investment: UN trade arm economic warningNEW!MenuselectSearch quotes, news & videosMenuHigher risk, lower growth, less investment: UN trade arm issues downbeat global economic outlookPublished Thu, Jun 19 20256:30 AM EDTUpdated Thu, Jun 19 202512:06 PM EDTKey PointsGlobal investment has hit record lows this year, continuing a slide in deals and projects that began in 2024, according to the annual World Investment Report from the UN's trade arm, UNCTAD."Basically, the M&A market is back to global financial crisis levels," said an UNCTAD official.The "most alarming" deterioration in foreign direct investment was in sectors aligned with sustainable development goals.The United Nations headquarters in New York City.Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe leading body of the United Nations focused on trade and development, UNCTAD, is warning that international investment in 2025 has turned negative due to changes in global trade policy including tariff uncertainty.While there had been modest growth in global investment at the start of the year, trade tensions have led to downward revisions in most indicators of foreign direct investment (FDI), according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's , released on Thursday. This includes gross domestic product, capital formation, exports of goods and services, foreign exchange, financial market volatility, and investor sentiment."Taking all of these together, they almost all have been revised in the direction of higher risk, lower growth, lower investment, and so forth, since the beginning of this year," said Richard Bolwijn, one of the authors of the report and head of the Investment Research Branch Division on Investment and Enterprise for UNCTAD. "If we take the projections by the IMF, the World Bank, and other institutions that provide us with the raw data for these indicators, they have all worsened since January. Moderate growth expectations we might have had early in the year have now all disappeared," he said.Among the reversals in growth was a two-year positive trend in manufacturing investments fueled by efforts among manufacturers to diversify their supply chains beyond China, which began during the pandemic."Companies were continuing to look for new locations for production, but now with the tariffs, they are all sitting on their hands," said Bolwijn. The data for the first quarter of this year shows that both the M&A market and greenfield announcements (new project constructions) are at record lows. "Basically, the M&A market is back to global financial crisis levels," he said.Bolwijn said even if the situation improves and clarity is provided on tariffs, it will be hard to recover from the shock of the first six months of the year.Globally, he said, between $100 and $200 billion of value in projects is at risk. "This is not all going to disappear overnight, but projects will be delayed which will cause a gap permanently going forward," he said."While tariffs have led to some investment project announcements aimed at restructuring supply chains in manufacturing sectors, their main effect has been a dramatic increase in investor uncertainty," the report stated. "Early data for the first quarter of 2025 show record-low activity in deals and projects."Cross-border mergers and acquisitions remained below the long-term average, "signalling a structural shift toward domestic and nearshore investment strategies amid rising policy risks, regulatory scrutiny and global uncertainty," the report added.The report showed that global foreign direct investment contracted for the second consecutive year. International project finance, which makes up the highest share of FDI in the least developed countries, continued its slump in 2024. Infrastructure investment makes up a large part of this investment. According to the report, the value of IPF was 26 percent lower in 2024, extending a sharp decline from 2023.Uncertainty over exchange and interest rates was the reason cited behind the impact in financing conditions, with least developed countries the most in need of these funds. UNCTAD warned these countries would be most affected by the current investment downturn. Overall, FDI into developing countries was stable in 2024, at $867 billion, but the spread between the winners and losers was wide, according to the report.Africa's foreign direct investment recorded its highest level ever, with a 75% increase to $97 billion. The lion's share of that investment came from a single international project finance deal in Egypt by a sovereign investment fund in the United Arab Emirates. Taking that investment out, FDI flows to Africa were still up 12% ($64 billion.) Record FDI flows increased to developing Asia (ASEAN), up 10%, to $225 billion.Foreign direct investment in China, however, continued to slump."Over the past 15 years or so, we have always reported a gradual increase in its foreign direct investment [China] but over the past two years, we've seen two subsequent years of decline. Last year was down 29%," said Bolwijn. "If we look now at the comparison between the peak two years ago, it's like 40% down," he added.Bolwijn said it is not necessarily seeing companies pull out of China in terms of production capacity, but the tariffs are affecting their investment decisions. "So where international companies are looking to expand or create new manufacturing facilities, they now have to consider that there is a tariff and that from a trade cost perspective, they will look at locations that are most advantageous," he explained.FDI in South America saw an 18% decrease. India saw a modest 2% decrease. Latin America and the Caribbean saw a decrease of 12%, largely due to lower energy prices in 2024. Brazil, the region's largest FDI recipient, saw a decrease of 8%."The pullback in FDI affects all developing countries and the relative opportunity they have to either enter into or expand participation in the global value chains and certainly in manufacturing sectors," Bolwijn said. "India relies on foreign direct investment to expand its manufacturing, training and production capacity."Structurally weak and vulnerable economies saw a marginal increase in FDI. Least developed countries saw an increase of 9% ($37 billion), or 2.4% of global FDI flows. Landlocked developing countries saw a 10% decrease, while small island developing states saw an increase of 11%.UNCTAD wrote the "most alarming" deterioration in FDI was in sectors aligned with the sustainable development goals. Investment in energy and gas supply fell by 28%, while project finance in renewable energy declined by 16%."This trend comes at a time when the world can least afford to fall short. Reversing this negative trend in goals investment will demand not only more capital – both public and private – but also deeper alignment of investment flows with long-term sustainability goals," the report stated.Bowlijn said there is huge growth in semiconductor projects, including in the U.S. and India. Foreign direct investment in digital infrastructure is also increasing. "Digital economy investment is the fastest-growing segment around the world, including developing countries," said Bowlijn. "This includes data centers, which have seen big growth," he added.But while digital investment is the fastest-growing segment in FDI, these investments are asset-light. "So it may bring us less value in terms of FDI on the balance of payment, but it might bring us more projects and good development opportunities for developing countries," Bowlijn said.watch nowVIDEO10:2910:29'The Fragmentation Era': PIMCO's Richard Clarida on the firm's latest outlookNews TipsGot a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you.CNBC NewslettersSign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inboxGet this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services.Advertise With Us© 2025 CNBC LLC. All Rights Reserved. , This edition presents the findings of the Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025 (GRPS), which captures insights from over 900 experts worldwide. The report analyses global risks through three timeframes to support decision- makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities., In this regularly updated global economic outlook report, McKinsey experts examine some of the biggest challenges facing markets in 2025 and beyond..
Higher risk, lower growth, and declining investment is how the UN's trade agency, UNCTAD, sums up the global economic outlook in an annual report., As we approach 2025, the global economy faces a myriad of risks that could significantly impact businesses and markets worldwide. These risks are shaped by geopolitical tensions, economic policies, technolog-ical advancements, and environmental challenges., 2025 Growth Forecasts Cut for 70 Percent of Economies. WASHINGTON, June 10, 2025— Heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty are expected to drive global growth down this year to its slowest pace since 2008 outside of outright global recessions, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. The turmoil has resulted in growth forecasts being cut in nearly 70% , The global economy faces its slowest growth since 2008 due to trade tensions and policy uncertainty, with growth projected at 2.3 percent in 2025. This slowdown affects nearly 70 percent of all economies. Emerging markets and developing economies struggle with job creation and poverty reduction. Policy uncertainty disrupts global investment and trade, with trade growth expected to drop to 1.8 , In short, as the global economy continues to grow, and with monetary policy easing, risk-taking by investors could increase. And thus, vulnerabilities such as debt and leverage could build up, raising downside risks in the future. So, what can policymakers do now?, The global economic outlook is more uncertain than ever, as it depends heavily on (geo)political events and the trade decisions of the US President. The reintroduction of tariffs after the 90-day suspension periods (9 July for the rest of the world, 12 August for China) could have a significant impact on global growth. A marked slowdown is .