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Is Trump a genius? Top economist and tariff skeptic admits president may have outsmarted us all on the economy | The Independent Stay up to date with notifications from The IndependentNotifications can be managed in browser preferences.Not nowYes pleaseUS EditionChangeSupport NowSupport NowMenuMoreThank you for registeringPlease refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged inIs Trump a genius? Top economist and tariff skeptic admits president may have outsmarted us all on the economyTorsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, theorized a possible way for President Donald Trump to avoid wrecking the global economy with his tariffs — if he changes how he’s playing his gamein Washington, D.C.Friday 27 June 2025 20:36 BSTCommentsRelated video: US Tariff Negotiation Deadline Could Be ExtendedYour support helps us to tell the storyRead moreFrom reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.Your support makes all the difference.Read moreDid President outfox the world with ? Maybe, according to Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management. On Saturday, Sløk published a blog post titled "Has Trump Outsmarted Everyone On Tariffs?" In it, he explains a possible scenario in which Trump keeps tariffs below his highest threatened rates just long enough to ease uncertainty and that would come with massive tariffs. “Maybe the strategy is to maintain 30% tariffs on and 10% tariffs on all other countries and then give all countries 12 months to lower nontariff barriers and open up their economies to trade,” he wrote. The post comes just before on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" — which triggered a huge stock selloff in April — ends in early July, Fortune reports.Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, has suggested a path for President Donald Trump to take to not only avoid widespread economic harm with his tariffs, but to potentially increase the annual revenue for the U.S. by billions (EPA)RecommendedToy and game prices rise at the fastest rate on record as Trump’s tariffs on China hit industry hardTrump tariffs: US economy saw stark drop in GDP growth as businesses rushed to secure importsFamilies and businesses are concerned about the effect of tariffs on youth sportsThe pause was meant to provide the U.S. and its trade partners time to negotiate deals, , at least publicly.That said, the Trump administration has been saying for weeks that they are close to reaching deals with several unnamed trade partners. Sløk theorized that by extending that deadline by another year, other countries and U.S. businesses would have more time to adjust to a "new world with permanently higher tariffs," and would rocking the markets. “This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for U.S. taxpayers,” he wrote. “Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs and U.S. tax revenue will go up. Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.”Sløk previously was a critic of Trump's tariff plan, and it does not appear that his position will change if the president continues his erratic and aggressive tariff program. But he has identified what he believes would be a way to come out on top — so long as the president is willing to play a longer game. Trump may or may not be willing to do that. He seems to have to the by Wall Street — standing for Trump Always Chickens Out — and as a result any of his proposed policies, even if it makes more sense to do so. Sløk warned in April that a U.S. and China trade war would cripple American small businesses, and advised that providing some sense of stability would give the Federal Reserve a better view on inflation. As it stands now everyone from heads of state to small business owners are in a wait-and-see pattern, unsure of how to proceed in the choppy economic waters Trump has created. More aboutJoin our commenting forumJoin thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their repliesCommentsMost PopularPopular videosRead NextToday’s EditionIndependent en EspañolIndependent ArabiaIndependent TurkishIndependent PersianIndependent UrduThe StandardPuzzlesIndependent AdvertisingSyndicationWorking at The IndependentModern Slavery StatementThank you for registeringPlease refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in , President-elect Donald J. Trump has moved beyond the team-of-rivals approach from his first term and chosen economic aides who will defend tariffs and tax cuts., Is Trump a genius? Top economist and tariff skeptic admits president may have outsmarted us all on the economy Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, theorized a possible .
President Trump is relying on a cast of economic advisers with differing viewpoints and backgrounds as he implements a sweeping tariff agenda that has rattled financial markets and occasionally mix…, Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a joint letter to warn of the economic risks they see in a potential second term of Donald Trump, including reheated inflation. Trump has so far , Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists signed a letter on Tuesday warning that the U.S. and world economy will suffer if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential , Economists including Joseph Stiglitz and Robert Shiller are signatories on a letter cautioning that Trump's plans could harm the U.S. economy., Donald Trump is threatening to prosecute and imprison his political enemies. Experts on democracy and the rule of law told USA TODAY the risk is real., .