| | When teams win the coin toss, what should they choose?Responses:Lean first possession, but matchup factors could make second possession feasible (3 votes)Lean second possession, but matchup factors could make first possession feasible (3 votes)Almost always first possession (1 vote)Almost always second possession (1 vote)True 50-50 (1 vote)Teams are split on this decision. The survey response above indicates that NFL analytics teams are coming to different conclusions about the best strategy. It's understandable, because there are countervailing forces at play, and each option offers a potential advantage.The second possession team has the advantage of knowing what the first possession team did on its drive. If the first possession team scored a touchdown, the second possession team knows it must go for any and all fourth downs -- which can provide a playcalling advantage on third down, too, when the offense knows it doesn't have to reach the line to gain because it will have another shot. If the first possession team failed to score, the second possession team knows it can kick a short field goal, even on a fourth-and-1.But the first possession team also has an edge: It receives the ball in any potential third possession and it can shorten the second possession with a long opening drive. If neither team scores in the first two drives, or the teams trade field goals, then the first-possession team gets the ball back in a true sudden-death scenario.This is the kind of question where quantitative analysis helps. But as the results above show, different analysts can come up with different responses to the same question. So what does ESPN Analytics' model show?Editor's PicksNFL rules changes for 2025: Hawk-Eye cameras, kickoffs, celebrations, OT and ... the tush push11dKevin SeifertWhat are NFL overtime rules for regular and postseason play?10dESPNNFL owners OK kickoff, replay, OT rule changes166dKevin Seifert2 RelatedThe short answer is it favors taking the first possession, but there's more to it. In fact, a lot of the decision hinges on touchbacks. In another critical rule update, touchbacks are now (up from the 30-yard line last season), and the expected rate of the touchback changes this analysis.If touchbacks continue near the 64% rate they occurred last season, then our simulation model would estimate the first-possession team's net chances to win at 53.6%. But touchbacks will likely be less frequent given the yard-line change. If touchbacks drop to, say, a 40% rate, then we would estimate a 52.6% net win probability for the first-possession team. If it falls to 10%, then the first-possession team would have a 50.9% net win probability.This is because having the ball at the 35 helps the first-possession team. If they are forced to punt or commit a turnover, it will be farther downfield -- thus lessening the probability of a second-possession score and improving field position for a third possession.But what is truly relevant isn't the leaguewide average touchback rate; it's the touchback rates for a team and its opponent. And the team kicking off has significant control over whether there is a touchback. In other words, if a team chooses to kick, it can do so knowing it is trying to avoid a touchback (though this could cost it a couple of yards if the kick is short). Sharp teams that win the coin toss against touchback-heavy opponent kickers might elect to take the first possession, hoping to start way up at the 35.Ultimately, if we were filling out the survey, we would respond with: "Lean first possession, but matchup factors could make second possession feasible." If a team knew it was going to avoid a touchback, it's close enough that additional context could push the optimal decision to second possession. But our analysis suggests that most of the time teams ought to opt for the first possession.When teams win the coin toss, what will they choose?Responses:Mostly (but not always) choose second possession (7 votes)Mostly (but not always) choose first possession (2 votes)The disparity between these first two questions is interesting. Even some of the teams that believe that first possession is the correct choice also believe most teams will opt for the second possession.Why could that be? We have one theory.Best of NFL Nation• , The NFL has brought playoff OT rules to the regular season, but will they alter the previous tried-and-true strategy? We break it down., In 2025, NFL clubs approved a rule that aligns the postseason and regular season overtime rules by granting both teams an opportunity to possess the ball even if the first team scores a touchdown, subject to a 10-minute overtime period in the regular season..