And yet the twilight of 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s leadership — and the question of what follows — is fast approaching. Despite most Iranians’ desires to live under a tolerant, representative government that works for their prosperity, authoritarian transitions tend to be brutality contests, not popularity contests, often won by those with the greatest coercive powers. In Iran, it is military men, aspiring Iranian Putins and Sisis and not civilian reformers, who are the best positioned to seize control. According to one study, since World War II fewer than a quarter of authoritarian collapses have led to democracy — and those brought about by foreign intervention or violence have been even less likely to do so., The direct origins of the U.S.-Iran conflict date back to the 1979 revolution that replaced Iran’s U.S.-allied monarchy with an anti-American theocracy. Since then the Islamic Republic of Iran has vowed to end U.S. imperialism and eradicate Israel., US President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities puts the Middle East in a volatile position, with all eyes now on Tehran’s next move. Here’s what to know..